This year, airlines expect to carry 4.35 billion passengers worldwide. A forecast that is close to the record of 4.54 billion in 2019, before the Covid-19 pandemic.
The recovery in air traffic is vigorous. The main international association of airlines, Iata, meeting in general assembly in Istanbul, announces its forecasts for 2023 on Monday, May 5. This year, they expect to carry 4.35 billion passengers worldwide. A forecast that is close to the record of 4.54 billion in 2019, before the Covid-19 pandemic. The sector is benefiting in particular from the reopening of China, which will result in a return to profits for carriers. They are expected to generate $9.8 billion in net profit this year – double what Iata had previously expected, which has also halved its loss estimates for 2022 to $3.6 billion. .
The overall turnover of air carriers should reach 803 billion dollars, within reach of 838 billion in 2019, according to Iata, which has therefore revised its December projections upwards (779 billion). Even though the industry’s operating margins will remain very low this year, at 1.2% according to Iata, these profits, the first since the start of the pandemic, will mark a dramatic improvement compared to the 42 billion dollars lost in 2021 and at the abyss of 2020 (137.7 billion).
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Geographic disparities
Not all geographic areas will return to profit this year, however, warned Iata. North American, European and Middle Eastern carriers are expected to be largely in the green, with cumulative 11.5, 5.1 and 2 billion dollars respectively. But companies in the Asia-Pacific region (-6.9 billion dollars), Latin America (-1.4 billion) and Africa (-500 million) will remain in deficit this year, the association warned.
The financial performance of airlines is better than expected. Stronger profitability is supported by several positive developments: “China lifted Covid-19 restrictions ahead of schedule. Freight revenue remains higher than pre-pandemic, although not volumes. And costs are starting to ease. Kerosene prices, which are still high, contracted during the first half of the year,” said Willie Walsh, the director general of Iata.